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earth view
View of Earth from perspective of shower at peak of Draconid shower. Moon waxing gibbous 91%. [Average cloud cover]

Predictions
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Jeremie Vaubaillon
1900 trail:
peak ZHR = ~600
time = 19:57 UT (Oct 8)
radiant RA = 263.2 deg, DEC = +55.8
1873-1894 trails:
peak ZHR = ~60?
time = 17:09 UT (Oct 8)
radiant RA = 263.3 deg, DEC = +55.4

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Danielle Moser (MSFC)
peak ZHR = ~750
time = 19:52 UT (Oct 8)

Esko Lyytinen
1900 trail:
time = 20:12 UT (Oct 8)
peak ZHR = 150
peak sol long = 195.038
duration FWHM = 70 min
1887 trail:
time = 17:02 UT (Oct 8)
peak ZHR = 16
peak sol long = 194.908
duration FWHM ~ 25 min
(update: 2011/1/21)

Mikhail Maslov
1900 trail:
peak ZHR = 40-50
time = 20:13 UT (Oct 8)
radiant RA = 263.3 deg, DEC = +55.8
speed Vg = 20.9 km/s
1894 trail:
peak ZHR = 8
time = 18:06 UT

Mikiya Sato
1900 trail:
peak ZHR = 500
time = 20:36 UT (Oct 8)
1873-1894 trails: peak ZHR = 100
time = 17:05 UT (Oct 8)

Draconid MAC
team leads (proposed missions):

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Jeremie Vaubaillon,
Observatoire de Paris
Airborne observations Safire (CNRS) aircraft
[email]
[Career pages]

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P. Koten,
Ondrejov Observatory
Airborne observations Falcon 20E (DLR) aircraft
[email]

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Dr. Peter Jenniskens,
SETI Institute
Airborne observations Gulfstream V (NASA) aircraft
[email];
[Career pages]

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V. Della Corte
Universita degli studi di Napoli "Parthenope"
DUSTER - Dust collection by balloon
[email]

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T. Kohout,
University of Helsinki
Dust collection by aircraft
[email]

Mission statement - The 2011 Draconids Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign is an international campaign to study the exceptional 2011 October 8 Draconid meteor outburst from the air and ground.


Calculate the rate of 2011 Draconid meteors at your site

What is the best location for viewing the 2011 Draconid shower? You can calculate the answer yourself with the handy FLUXTIMATOR Java Applet below (courtesy of Peter Jenniskens and David Nugent). Choose the shower, the date, and a nearby location. Check your timezone carefully. The applet then calculates the expected shower rate.

Tip: The applet does not show the early evening hours. You can bring this part of the flux curve in view by choosing "other" and changing the timezone setting. Keep in mind that this, of course, will shift the meaning of the time axis at the bottom of the graph.

The applet also allows you to see the difference between staying downtown or moving out into the countryside to a dark and clear location. All rates were calculated by taking into account Daylight Savings Time (DST) and the Moon light, which is a significant disturbance during the Draconids.

Disclaimer: Make sure that Java is enabled. The duration, peak activity and time of the peaks are based on recent numerical models and past Draconid shower observations, and may be in error by hours in peak time, and an unknown amount in peak rate. Rates are based on the model by Vaubaillon, while results from others differ significantly.


SETI Institute logo Curator: Peter Jenniskens
Responsible NASA Official: Jay H. Grinstead

Last update: (see date of latest blog entry)
Hosted by: The SETI Institute